<>A topic

  Global ocean temperature affects the habitat quality of some marine organisms . When the temperature changes too much for them to continue to reproduce , These species began to look for other habitats more suitable for their current and future life and reproductive success . A lobster population in Maine is an example , They are slowly moving north to Canada , The lower ocean temperatures there provide a more suitable habitat . This geographic shift could seriously disrupt the livelihoods of companies that rely on the stability of marine species .

  Your team has been employed as a consultant by Scotland's North Atlantic Fisheries Management consortium . The consortium hopes that as global ocean temperatures rise , To better understand the issues associated with the possible migration of Scotch herring and mackerel from existing habitats near Scotland . These two species contribute a lot to the economy of Scottish fisheries . Changing the position of herring and mackerel populations , It could make Scotland's smaller fishing companies economically impractical , Because these companies use fishing vessels that don't have refrigeration equipment to catch fresh fish , And transport it to the market in Scottish fishing ports .

        requirement :

* Build a mathematical model to determine the future of these two fish species 50 Most likely location during the year , And it is assumed that the water temperature changes enough to cause migration .
According to the appeal, the rate of sea water temperature change , Use your model to predict the best , Worst case and most likely time , Until if small fishing companies continue to operate outside their existing locations , These populations are so far apart that small-scale fishing companies cannot catch them .
* Based on your forecast analysis , Should these small fishing companies change their operations ?

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